26-05-2026 31°C Twb recorded in Oxfordshire

31.8°C Twb is the upper range of te 26-31°C human risk index.


Published: 29 November 2023
"A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

Jennifer Vanos, Gisel Guzman-Echavarria, …Ollie Jay Show authors
Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 7653 (2023) Cite this article

Abstract
"Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming."

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